Portugal vs Uzbekistan: the model vs. what happened

Before kickoff, the model gave Portugal 43%, the draw 26%, and Uzbekistan 32% — most likely scoreline 1-1.

What actually happened: Portugal won 5-0. That result carried a pre-match probability of 43% — broadly in line with expectations.

The final score landed outside the model's top five most-likely lines, even though the broader read may have been close.