England vs Ghana: the model vs. what happened

Before kickoff, the model gave England 42%, the draw 26%, and Ghana 33% — most likely scoreline 1-1.

What actually happened: England 0-0 Ghana. That result carried a pre-match probability of 26% — broadly in line with expectations.

The final score landed outside the model's top five most-likely lines, even though the broader read may have been close.