Argentina vs Austria: the model vs. what happened

Before kickoff, the model gave Argentina 40%, the draw 26%, and Austria 34% — most likely scoreline 1-1.

What actually happened: Argentina won 2-0. That result carried a pre-match probability of 40% — broadly in line with expectations.

The final score landed outside the model's top five most-likely lines, even though the broader read may have been close.