England vs Croatia: the model vs. what happened

Before kickoff, the model gave England 39%, the draw 26%, and Croatia 35% — most likely scoreline 1-1.

What actually happened: England won 4-2. That result carried a pre-match probability of 39% — broadly in line with expectations.

The final score landed outside the model's top five most-likely lines, even though the broader read may have been close.